tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post8043740625160235306..comments2024-03-29T02:08:50.157-04:00Comments on The Virtuosi: Money for (almost) NothingAlemihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15394732652049740436noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-47402718128820522582022-03-21T10:54:24.185-04:002022-03-21T10:54:24.185-04:00Your post is very helpful and information is relia...Your post is very helpful and information is reliable. I am satisfied with your post. Thank you so much for sharing this wonderful post.<br /><a href="https://www.filmstaroutfits.com/tom-hiddleston-loki-variant-jackett" rel="nofollow">Loki Variant Jacket</a><br /><br />David Millarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-74148344447157609462019-07-24T23:50:37.963-04:002019-07-24T23:50:37.963-04:00Thanks for provide great informatic and looking be...Thanks for provide great informatic and looking beautiful blog, really nice required information & the things i never imagined and i would request, wright more blog and blog post like that for us. Thanks you once agian<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://marriagecertificate.co.in" rel="nofollow">marriage certificate in delhi</a><br /><a href="https://marriagecertificate.co.in/marriage-certificate-in-ghaziabad.html" rel="nofollow">marriage certificate in ghaziabad</a><br /><a href="https://marriagecertificate.co.in/marriage-certificate-in-gurgaon.html" rel="nofollow">marriage certificate in gurgaon</a><br /><a href="https://marriagecertificate.co.in/marriage-certificate-in-noida.html" rel="nofollow">marriage certificate in noida</a><br /><a href="https://www.marriagecertificate.co.in/marriage-certificate-in-faridabad-.html" rel="nofollow">marriage certificate in faridabad</a><br /><a href="https://marriagecertificate.co.in" rel="nofollow">marriage certificate</a><br /><a href="https://www.birthcertificate.in" rel="nofollow">name add in birth certificate</a><br /><a href="https://specialmarriageact.com" rel="nofollow">special marriage act</a><br /><a href="https://courtmarriage.me" rel="nofollow">court marriage in delhi</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">name change</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">name change in gazette</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">name change process in india</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">name change affidavit</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">adhar card name change</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">name change procedure online</a><br /><a href="https://namechange.in" rel="nofollow">Name Change in Gazette</a>Vipinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05111733132344531535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-40479321283987068622017-11-20T18:36:46.922-05:002017-11-20T18:36:46.922-05:00QUANTUM BINARY SIGNALS
Get professional trading s...<b><a href="http://signals.syntaxlinks.com/r/QuantumBinarySignals" rel="nofollow">QUANTUM BINARY SIGNALS</a></b><br /><br />Get professional trading signals sent to your cell phone daily.<br /><br />Follow our signals today & <b>gain up to 270% daily</b>.Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07287821785570247118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-62177632291989916632012-04-03T17:06:06.441-04:002012-04-03T17:06:06.441-04:00See http://www.durangobill.com/MegaMillionsOdds.ht...See http://www.durangobill.com/MegaMillionsOdds.html for an analysis of the expected value after taking into account the chance of having to split a prize. Conclusion: "even for a huge Jackpot similar to the quoted $640 million for 3/30/2012, your after tax expected return is less than $0.73 for every $1.00 ticket that you buy."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-23194492541275358622012-03-30T13:28:25.905-04:002012-03-30T13:28:25.905-04:00That threw me at first, too. But, if you add up t...That threw me at first, too. But, if you add up the probabilities of all outcomes with a matching final ball, it does indeed work out to 1/46.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-86742534523963211302012-03-30T10:56:39.631-04:002012-03-30T10:56:39.631-04:00I'm not sure why you applied the tax factor to...I'm not sure why you applied the tax factor to prizes that bring in less than $5000, if that is the only time they are taxed.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12746162771552359517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-11528271298669870102012-03-30T05:05:27.063-04:002012-03-30T05:05:27.063-04:00Shouldn't you also try and factor in the oppor...Shouldn't you also try and factor in the opportunity cost of physically buying the ticket? That's going to be almost identical no matter how many tickets you buy (although keep increasing if you have to go to more than one location). That's going to be prohibitive for single, or low numbers of tickets.<br /><br />And of course if you personally want to enter, you need to factor in the cost of doing the maths, which is already sunk into the project. Assuming the expected outcome remains positive after accounting for possible jackpot splitting, then doesn't that dramatically increase the number of tickets that you would have to buy for this to be optimal? :-pTechtropes Matthttp://www.techtropes.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-2034546231732687322012-03-29T17:28:29.896-04:002012-03-29T17:28:29.896-04:00Sounds neat, I'll take a look at it. Thanks f...Sounds neat, I'll take a look at it. Thanks for the info!Corkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08035182065579585523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-84466024067366111522012-03-29T17:23:48.315-04:002012-03-29T17:23:48.315-04:00I saw this and really didn't want to have to f...I saw this and really didn't want to have to factor it in. BUT, the Megaplier does NOT apply to the jackpot, just the rest of the prizes. Since the jackpot is main factor here (the rest of the terms add up to an expected value of maybe a dozen or so cents, I think), it should't really change the results by that much.Corkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08035182065579585523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-66857602927619692942012-03-29T17:21:03.826-04:002012-03-29T17:21:03.826-04:00If the prize were for JUST getting the last ball (...If the prize were for JUST getting the last ball (and didn't care about matching any of the other numbers) then the probability would be 1/46. But in this case we have to match the last ball AND not match the others. This reduces the probability.Corkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08035182065579585523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-2181166516449708762012-03-29T17:18:06.749-04:002012-03-29T17:18:06.749-04:00How are the odds of getting the last ball (1-46) o...How are the odds of getting the last ball (1-46) only 1/75? Shouldn't the odds be 1/46?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-74821006007255106892012-03-29T16:43:07.365-04:002012-03-29T16:43:07.365-04:00There's another bit of analysis you should app...There's another bit of analysis you should apply, which is very revealing.<br /><br />Granted that you have a positive expectation... how many tickets should you buy? Do you sell the house and invest everything you have in the lottery? No... because that gives a 97.5% chance of being wiped out; and then you couldn't try again next time opportunity knocks.<br /><br />The mathematical solution here is called the "Kelly Criteron". Assuming you have a certain amount of funds, you should invest the fraction of that which gives you the most rapid rate of increase of your bankroll, on the assumption you keep repeating a bet of that fraction of your bank every time you get this opportunity. Simply put, you bet the maximize the logarithm of your bank roll.<br /><br />So let me ask this; what amount of assets should you have to make buying a single ticket a good investment?<br /><br />The answer to THIS question is .... you should have a bit over 120 million dollars in assets before even buying 1 ticket is a worthwhile investment.<br /><br />Wikipedia has a good introduction to the Kelly criterion for those who want to dig into why it works.sylashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10594421176931832170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-17172025693187430692012-03-29T16:25:21.863-04:002012-03-29T16:25:21.863-04:00You also need to consider a stochastic factor know...You also need to consider a stochastic factor known as the Megaplier which allows the jackpot to be multiplied by the factor if it is in fact purchased.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8807287158334608095.post-19504808056968595882012-03-29T08:16:18.303-04:002012-03-29T08:16:18.303-04:00Another thing that can trip you up is multiple win...Another thing that can trip you up is multiple winners, which would cut your prize down in half (or more). If the number of tickets sold is in the tens of millions this is actually a likely occurrence.Yarivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15599587931578476824noreply@blogger.com